Selection/Filter pane

In the left pane, users can select the point or BGC subzone-variant and then the site series of interest. The edatopic space of the selected site series is displayed in the graphic below for reference (see example in Figure 1 and 2 below). By default the report will show all species that are predicted to be suitable in at least one model and time period. Users have the option to choose the Suitable Only option to limit the list to species that meet the threshold for classification as suitable across the GCM ensemble in any of the time periods. Users can also opt to include outside home range (OHR) species here. For more information on OHR species, visit Documentation - Methods - Outside Home Range.

Detailed report

The Detailed report shows modelled suitability ratios for each species in the selected site series for each time period. The colour legend for suitability ratings is on the left hand pane. The mapped BGC unit represents the historic climate approximated by the climatic conditions of the 1961-1990 period. The recent time period (2001-2020) has two bars: one for the observed climate (measured by weather stations), and one for the climates simulated by the ensemble of GCMs. These two bars are not necessarily expected to agree: the modelled climates sample a large range of possible recent conditions, of which the observed recent climate is only one.

The report then summarizes the historical suitability ratings and CCISS projected suitability ratings for each species in the following order:

1. The CFRG suitability rating: Ecological suitability ratings for a timber objective taken from the Chief Forester’s Reference Guide for Stocking Standards (CFRG)

2. The CFRG P/A value: Preferred/Acceptable ratings taken directly from the CFRG

3. The Historical Environmental Suitability: Expert derived baseline (1961-1990) environmental suitability rating for site series.

4. CCISS Establishment Suitability: The weighted average suitability rating based on the historical environmental suitability (1961-1990), and CCISS projected suitability based on recent observed (2001-2020), and 2021-2040 future projected climates. This indicates the likely level of constraints for successful establishment of the species in the present climate. Default model settings give roughly equal weight to the three time periods, with slightly more weight to the recent (2001+) periods.

5. CCISS Maturation Suitability: The weighted average suitability rating projected across the four 20-year normal periods (2021-2100). This indicates the inferred suitability of successfully growing an established species to maturity (80 years). Default model settings equally weight all time periods.

6. Trend: The proportion of the GCM simulations indicating improving/stable suitability (numerator) vs. declining suitability or remaining unsuitable.

Reminder: The weights used to calculate Establishment Suitability and Maturation Suitability can be modified using the “Adjust Parameters” dialog box in the “Select Sites” tab.

Summary report

This report compares CCISS projected suitability at maturity with the Chief Forester’s Reference Guide ecological suitability. Species codes are coloured according to trends in their future suitability using the legend at the bottom of the selection pane: improving (green), or decreasing (red). Species added to the CCISS projected stocking standard* are coloured purple, and species dropped from the CCISS projected stocking standard are strike-through.

*Note: These are not formally adopted stocking standards by BC Ministry of Forests.

References:

Chief Forester’s Reference Guide: https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/industry/forestry/managing-our-forest-resources/silviculture/stocking-standards

Chart

Users can view the chart mode, which displays a stacked bar chart showing the ratio of future BGC analogs by time period predicted across a range of global climate model-scenario climate projections. Hovering over a stacked bar will display these proportions numerically.

The recent time period (2001-2020) has two bars: one for the observed climate (measured by weather stations and interpolated across the province), and one for the modelled climates (simulated by global climate models). These two aren’t expected to agree: the modelled climates sample a large range of possible recent conditions, of which the observed recent climate is only one.

The default mode of this plot simply shows the BGC analog labels. Users can specify a site series of interest and select “Site Series Overlap” on the lefthand pane, which will display the site series in the BGC analog that overlap with the edatopic position of the historic site series, along with the proportion of the edatopic overlap. The “minimum site series overlap” slider allows the user to include or exclude site series with small edatopic overlaps.

Map

After switching to the Map tab in the drop-down menu under BEC Futures, users can select the site or area of interest from the drop down menu and then select a future time period. The map will highlight the historical BGC unit in colour (pink) and the projected BGC analogs in grey. Darker greys indicate a higher proportion of global climate model projections matched that BGC analog.

References:

Klinka, K., J. Worrall, L. Skoda, and P. Varga. 2000. The Distribution and Synopsis of Ecological and Silvical Characteristics of Tree Species of British Columbia’s Forests. Canadian Cartographics Ltd., Coquitlam, B.C.

Export Report

The report is designed for documentation and off-line use of a CCISS tool report session, for example, as an appendix to a site plan. We recommend including only the site series of interest to the user. Choose the “Suitable Only” option to limit the list to species that meet the threshold for inclusion as suitable in any of the time periods.

Export data

Suitability data can be exported for conducting further analyses such as calculating summary statistics for your area of interest. Suitability data exported from the CCISS tool is in “long form” with each row showing projected suitability by site of interest, site series, and tree species. Data are exported as a .CSV file; a PDF metadata report is included in the export folder.

Subregion type

The options for Subregion type are “None”, BC Natural Resource Districts, and Forest Landscape Planning (FLP) areas. We currently provide functionality for 10 FLP areas; we will add more as they become publicly available. When a subregion is clicked on the map, an interactive plot appears to the right of the map. The plot shows ensemble mean changes in biogeoclimatic unit area or species suitability; lines on the map can be clicked to show the ensemble variation.

Display BGC or Suitability

Select whether the map displays biogeoclimatic (BGC) units or species suitability. Subsequent dialogue boxes are customized for each of these two modes, as described below.

BGC mode

Select reference period (baseline) historical climate, observed recent climate (2001-2020), or future climates.

• When reference (1961-1990) is selected, there is the option of selecting Mapped or Predicted. The Mapped BGC units are a rasterization of the official linework of BEC version 13. The Modeled BGC units are the prediction of the biogeoclimatic model used to generate the CCISS projections. These are different because the model is trained with a sample of locations from each biogeoclimatic unit, and hence is not expected to perfectly reproduce the official linework.

• When Future (GCMs) is selected, Select GCM controls whether the map shows ensemble results or individual GCM simulations. SZ_Ensemble displays the biogeoclimatic subzone/variant with the highest number of votes across the ensemble of 60 simulations (i.e., the ensemble vote winner); Zone_Ensemble shows the biogeoclimatic zone with the most votes. These may be different because votes for the highest-voted subzone variant may be outnumbered by votes for multiple subzone/variants from another biogeoclimatic zone. To see what the breakdown of votes was for any given location, users can click on the map, and a pop-up will appear with stacked bars showing the percent of votes for each BGC unit in each time period. For more information, see the example at the bottom of this page.

• Regional summaries can be viewed by selecting District or FLP Area from the left-hand panel, and clicking on the area of interest on the map. A box will appear on the right-hand panel of the screen, where users can adjust the x-variable of interest (time, MAT, MAP, CMD, or DD5). Users can also select whether they want to summarize by zone, and if they want to show the 2001-2020 observed period as points on the resulting plot.

Suitability mode

Throughout Suitability mode, there is the option of choosing a representative edatope (site type) and tree species.

• Select Edatope (SNR/SMR) provides the option of B2 (nutrient-poor, subxeric), C4 (nutrient-medium, mesic), or D6 (Nutrient-rich, hygric). Displaying all 35 edatopes is computationally infeasible, so we chose these three edatopes to represent distinct, common site types.
  
• Select species allow selection of common native tree species of BC. We will add more species in the future. Codes for each species are defined in Documentation>Definitions>SpeciesCodes.

When Observed (2001-2020) or Future (GCMs) is selected, there is the option of mapping Projected Suitability or Suitability Change.

• Projected Suitability displays the CCISS environmental suitability rating for the selected time period. The meanings of these ratings are defined in Documentation>Methods>SuitabilityRatings.
• Suitability Change displays the change in suitability relative to the mapped reference period (1961-1990) suitability rating. Suitabilities in historically unsuitable locations are mapped in yellow to differentiate this suitability range expansion from increases in suitability within the historically suitable range of the species.

Display Novelty

In BGC or Suitability mode, the Display Novelty? checkbox overlays a map of estimate climatic novelty. High climatic novelty (>5σ, red colors) indicates that the biogeoclimatic subzone/variant identified by the biogeoclimatic model is a very poor analog for the future climate condition, even though it is the best available. The CCISS tool uses a default dissimilarity threshold of 5-sigma (5σ) to infer a novel climate and discard the biogeoclimatic analog. Novelty in the 3-5σ range can be interpreted as a poor analog. In this range, species suitability inferences may be useful but are also likely to be somewhat misleading. The methods and interpretation of climatic novelty are explained in Documentation>Methods>NovelClimates

Hide/Show Layer

This button removes the CCISS layer to reveal the basemap. This is useful for comparing the CCISS maps to the topography, satellite photo, or baseline BGC linework. These basemaps can be selected in the top right of the map:

Find-A-BEC

The Find-A-BEC feature helps with locating specified biogeoclimatic units of Western North America. Select the BGC zone of interest and then use Deselect All to select a subset of subzone/variants within that zone. Applying the Gray non-selected BGCs checkbox assists with finding the selected unit(s).

Export data from CCISS Spatial:

Data from CCISS Spatial are downloadable as raster files. Users can opt to download data for the whole province by clicking on the gray Download Province button at the bottom of the left-hand panel, or they can select a specific district or FLP area in the same panel. If they select a district or FLP area of interest, a pop up appears on the right-hand side (also where users can view the regional summaries). Here, users can download the raster file of the map they are currently viewing.