Ratio of Model Predictions of future BGCs and aligned site series
Climate Change Informed Species Selection (CCISS) Tool
Climate Change Informed Species Selection (CCISS – pronounced ‘kiss’) is a Biogeoclimatic Ecosystem Classification-based analysis framework built to anticipate the change climate implications to tree species environmental suitability at a site specific level. The CCISS tool is a web-based application that makes this analysis accessible to practitioners to help guide climate change adaptation in reforestation decisions.
Understanding climate- and site-level species suitability is one of the foundational pieces of information that practitioners require for the creation of silvicultural prescriptions that will lead to successful reforestation over a rotation period. Climate change will affect this goal by progressively altering environmental conditions and therefore the suitability of tree species established on a site over time.
To address this challenge, the CCISS tool projects changes to species environmental suitability at a site series level for any user selected location in the province and estimates the future suitability of a tree species to this changing climate. To account for future climate uncertainty the tool looks at a wide range of global climate change models and emissions scenarios to capture the range of plausible climate futures for any location in BC in 20-year periods out to 2100.
To assist users, the tool compares the current species selection guidance in the Chief Foresters Reference Guide with the future forecast from the CCISS analysis. Reports from the tool highlight where currently acceptable species are stable/improving or declining/unsuitable and where new species have become suitable and could be considered as candidates for assisted migration.
How Can CCISS Be Applied In Climate Change Adaption?
- Designing Climate-change Stocking Standards
- Identifying current management practices that may lead to higer levels of risk with climate change.
- Setting Landscape Level Stocking Standards to Manage Uncertainty
- Identifying best locations for off-site species reforestation trials/ assisted range expansion
- Identifying regions and site conditions where forests and tree species are at highest risk to climate change stresses.
- Identifying climate change refugia
The CCISS tool is a web-based R-shiny application organized into six tabs.
- Select Sites: User selects points or areas of
interest using one of 3 methods
- Single points
- By selected BGCs or BGCs within districts
- By submitted CSV file with user site locations
- Feasibility Report: 2 options
- Detailed: report suitability predictions for each species for a chosen site series at each point or AOI
- Stocking Standard: A comparison of the CFRG stocking standards and the CCISS predicted suitability ratings
- BEC Futures: The model ratio of predicted BGCs by
time period shown by 2 options.
- Chart: A stacked bar chart shows the ratio of biogeoclimatic units being predicted from the selected GMC and climate scenario models in each time period. Optionaly show the site series that are equivalent within each BGC
- Map: Show BGC map of western North America with the target BGC highlighted and the source BGCs for a selected future time period shown in greyscale.
- Supporting Info: This tab has several subtabs.
- Silvics and Ecology: Tables of species from Klinka et al. 2000
- Trends: Summary of future trends for every tree species
- Reports: Exporting reports or data for off-line use
- Export reports of the web-tool screens (last report)in HTML or PDF
- Export datasets in CSV or RDS file formats for further analysis
- About: Help files and data sources
- Executive Summary: summary and links to supporting documents
- Instructions: how to use the tool
- Model Info: Data table versions used in the current CCISS analysis and change log.
- Shiny App information: Server information
Additional Documents:
Instructions (How to CCISS)
Select points or areas of interest
Step 1. Select points or areas of interest using one of three methods:
Option 1. Click on BGC map to add one or more individual locations. Use this option if you have specific sites you are interested in or are exploring CCISS results. Where multiple sites are selected, the user can choose to generate a report where points are averaged within a BGC (default) or for each individual site.
Option 2. Click on map to choose an entire BGC or a BGC within a single Forest District. The CCISS tool will use a set of pre-selected random points for the units chosen. This option is to be used where general trends are desired by area. The BGC + District option is probably most appropriate for stocking standard revisions.
Option 3. User selects a formatted CSV file to upload user-specified and named points. The batch file must be in comma-separated (.csv) text format specifying a short sitename, latitude, longitude, and (optionally) site series (Formatted like ICHmc2/01a with no spaces) for each site. Batch files of up to 4000 points are supported and run at about 20 points/second.
Step 2. Optionally change to report by individual point or average across all points in the same BGC.
Option 1 and 2 default to BGC averaged reports while option 3 defaults to individual reports.
Step 3. Click the “Generate Results” at the top of the screen to complete the analysis for the points of interest.
If additional points are added or other changes to parameters the “Generate Results’ button will change to ’Refresh Results” to regenerate the output.
Adjust Session Parameters (Optional)
The CCISS tool makes calculations that differentially weight climate models, scenarios, and time periods in results. We have assigned recommended weightings for general use of the tool. However, for some purposes users may wish to adjust the weights given to these parameters based on their specific objectives.
1. Establishment feasibility weights
The Feasibility report provides an assessment of establishment feasibility, representing the likelihood of success in establishing the species to free growing if planted in the present climate. This value is a weighted average of the environmental feasibility in the 1961-2020, 2001-2020, and 2021-2040 periods. The default weightings are even across these periods to reflect three perspectives on feasibility. First, the 1961-1990 period reflects the proven viability of the species in the ecosystem. Second, the 2001-2020 period reflects the actual climate experienced in the location of interest. Third, the 2021=2040 period is the expected climate during the establishment of the species. Users may want to adjust the establishment feasibility weights based on whether they want a more historically-oriented or future-oriented assessment. Note that the feasibility in each of these periods is visible in the detailed feasibility report.
2. Maturation weights
The Feasibility Report provides an assessment of maturation feasibility: the feasibility of the species through the entire future period to rotation (2021 to 2100). The default setting equally weight the four 20-year future time periods.
3. GCM weights
There are 13 global climate models available in the CCISS tool. However, the CCISS tool defaults to the 8-model ensemble of global climate models recommended by Mahony et al. (2022) and assigns each of these models equal weighting. The five models were excluded because their warming rates aren’t supported by observational evidence (CanESM5, UKESM1, INM-CM5; explained here), because they only have a single run for each scenario (BCC-CSM2, INM-CM5), or because they exhibit unrealistic localized warming in BC (IPSL-CM6A).
4. Scenario weights
Global climate model projections follow scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions called Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The CCISS tool provides the option of giving different weights to the four major SSP scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5. Collectively, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP3-7.0 provide a reasonable representation of optimistic, neutral, and pessimistic outlooks on global emissions policies and socioeconomic development. The CCISS tool defaults to equal weighting of these three scenarios to represent scenario uncertainty in climate change projections. We have set SSP5-8.5 weighting to 0 in the default scenarios because it is extremely unlikely based on current trends in energy economics and policy (Hausfather and Peters 2020).
Tree species feasibility report
This is the main report of the CCISS tool. The Summary mode of this report provides a comparison of the Chief Forester’s Reference Guide for Stocking Standards (CFRG) and the CCISS feasibility assessment. The Detailed mode shows the distribution of feasibility ratings for the global climate model ensemble in each time period.
The concept and definitions of CCISS feasibility ratings are discussed in more detail here.
Selection/Filter pane
In the left pane select the BGC subzone/variant and then the site series of interest. The edatopic space of the selected site series is displayed in the graphic below for reference. By default the report will show all species that are predicted to be feasible in at least one model and time period. Choose the “Feasible Only” option to limit the list to species that meet the threshold for classification as feasible across the global climate model ensemble in any of the time periods.
Detailed report
This report shows modelled feasibility ratios for each species in the selected site series for each time period. The colour legend for feasibility ratings is on the left hand pane. The mapped biogeoclimatic unit represents the historical equilibrium climate approximated by the climatic conditions of the 1961-1990 period. The recent time period (2001-2020) has two bars: one for the observed climate (measured by weather stations), and one for the climates simulated by the ensemble of global climate models. These two bars aren’t necessarily expected to agree: The modelled climates sample a large range of possible recent conditions, of which the observed recent climate is only one.
The report then summarizes the baseline suitability ratings and forecasted feasibility ratings for each species in the following order:
The CFRG suitability rating: Suitability ratings taken directly from the Chief foresters reference guide
The CFRG P/A value: Preferred/Acceptable ratings taken directly from the Chief foresters reference guide
The Historical Environmental Suitability: Expert baseline environmental suitability rating for site series.
CCISS Establishment Feasibility: The feasibility rating based on the baseline (1961-1990), recent observed (2001-2020), and 2021-2040 future projected feasibilities. This indicates the likely level of constraints for successful establishment of the species in the present climate. Default model settings equally weight time periods.
CCISS Maturation Feasibility: The mean feasibility rating across the 20-year normal periods (2021-2100). This indicates the inferred feasibility of successfully growing an established to maturity (80 years). Default model settings equally weight time periods
P/A: Assessed preferred/acceptable rating based on establishment and maturation feasibility.
Trend: the proportion of the GCM simulations indicating improving/stable feasibility (numerator) vs. declining feasibility or remaining unfeasible.
The weights used to calculate Establishment Feasibility and Maturation Feasibility can be modified using the “Adjust Parameters” dialog box in the “Select Sites” tab.
Summary report
This report compares CCISS maturation feasibility with the Chief Forester’s Reference Guide for Stocking Standards. Species codes are coloured according to trends in their future feasibility using the legend at the bottom of the selection pane: improving (green), decreasing (red). Species added to the CCISS stocking standard are coloured purple, and species dropped from the CCISS stocking standard are strike-through.
Projected BEC futures
This section summarizes the biogeoclimatic projections that underlie the species feasibility forecasts. Biogeoclimatic subzone/variants (a.k.a. BGC units) are the climate component of the Biogeoclimatic Ecosystem Classification (BEC). Each user-selected location has a mapped BGC unit representing its historical climate. Biogeoclimatic projections identify a BGC unit whose historical climate is the best match (best analog) for the future climate at a user-selected location. In other words, changes in climatic conditions (temperature, precipitation, etc) are translated into a change in the BGC unit.
Chart
The chart mode displays a stacked bar chart showing the ratio of future BGC analogs by time period predicted across range of global climate model-scenario climate projections. Hovering over a stacked bar will display these proportions numerically.
The recent time period (2001-2020) has two bars: one for the observed climate (measured by weather stations), and one for the modelled climates (simulated by global climate models). These two aren’t expected to agree: The modelled climates sample a large range of possible recent conditions, of which the observed recent climate is only one.
The default mode of this plot simply shows the BGC analog labels. Specifying a site series of interest will display the site series in the BGC analog that overlap with the edatopic position of the historic site series, along with the proportion of the edatopic overlap. The “minimum site series overlap” slider allows the user to include or exclude site series with small edatopic overlaps.
Map
Select the site or area of interest from the drop down menu and then select a future time period. The map will show the historical BGC unit in yellow and the projected BGC analogs in grey. Darker greys indicate a higher proportion of global climate model projections matched that BGC analog.
Supporting info
This section contains information that may be useful for interpreting CCISS results and making management decisions.
A. Silvics and Ecology
This module summarizes the silvics of each species with historic or future feasibility in the selected BGC unit and site series. This information is drawn from Klinka et al. (1999). This information can be explored further at this link.
Klinka, K., J. Worrall, L. Skoda, and P. Varga. 2000. The Distribution and Synopsis of Ecological and Silvical Characteristics of Tree Species of British Columbia’s Forests. Canadian Cartographics Ltd., Coquitlam, B.C.
B. Trends
This module provides provincial-scale maps for user-selected species and site types. Three example site series representing different edatopic conditions are currently available: the B2 edatope (nutrient-poor, moisture-subxeric sites), C4 edatope (nutrient-medium, moisture-mesic sites), and D6 edatope (nutrient-rich, moisture-hygric sites).
The figure provides three maps: (left) The historical environmental feasibility rating for each species; (center) the proportion of the GCM ensemble projecting the retreat (historically feasible but projected unfeasible) or expansion (historically unfeasible but projected to be feasible) of the species in the 2041–2060 period; and (right) the mean change in feasibility across the GCM ensemble by the 2041–2060 period.
Export
Export Report
The report is designed for documentation and off-line use of a CCISS tool report session, e.g. as an appendix to a site plan. We recommend including only the site series of interest to the user. Choose the “Feasible Only” option to limit list to species that meet the threshold for inclusion as feasible in any of the time periods.
Export data
Feasibility data can be exported for conducting further analysis such as calculating summary statistics for your area of interest. Feasibility data exported from the CCISS tool is in “long form” with each row showing projected feasibility by site of interest, site series, and tree species. Data is exported as a .CSV file; a PDF metadata report is included in the export folder.
Methods
Overview of CCISS Methods
The CCISS method can be summarized into two main steps:
Step 1—Biogeoclimatic projections—Use a statistical model to assign climate analogs for a large ensemble of projected future climates for each location in British Columbia;
Step 2—Cross-reference tree species feasibility—For each site series at user-specified locations of interest, find the tree species feasibility ratings of the equivalent site series in the ensemble of climate analogs.
Step 1: Biogeoclimatic projections
CCISS uses spatial climatic analogs to make inferences about future tree species feasibility. A spatial climate analog is a location with a historical climate that is similar to the current or future projected climate of a different location. Biogeoclimatic subzone/variants are a uniquely useful set of spatial climate analogs because they are familiar to resource management practitioners and are the organizing units for site-specific ecological interpretations accumulated over many decades.
In the CCISS framework, biogeoclimatic analogs are identified by training a statistical or machine learning model to recognize biogeoclimatic subzone-variants in terms of their historical (1961-1990) climatic conditions, and then applying that classification model to new (current or projected) climate conditions (MacKenzie and Mahony 2021). The new climates are thus labelled using their best analog within the BEC system, a process called biogeoclimatic projections (Figure 1).
To represent the uncertainty in modeling future climates, CCISS incorporates biogeoclimatic projections for 72 climate model simulations of the 21st century (8 climate models x 3 simulation runs x 3 socioeconomic scenarios).
Figure 1: An example of biogeoclimatic projections for British Columbia, excerpted from Mackenzie & Mahony (2021) (a) is the biogeoclimatic mapping for BC; (b) and (c) are biogeoclimatic projections for recent observed climate and a global climate model projection for the 2041-2070 period.
Step 2: Cross-reference tree species feasibility
Step 2 involves finding the tree species feasibility information for the climate analogs identified by step 1. For each user-specified location at each 20-year period of the 21st century, the CCISS tool provides a historical biogeoclimatic unit and an ensemble of biogeoclimatic analogs. In the example provided in Figure 2, the historical climate is SBSmc2, and the climate analog for the projected future climate is IDFdk3. Both of these BGC units have associated site series, distributed across their unique edatopic grids. Each of these site series has associated tree species feasibility ratings. The CCISS analysis adopts the feasibility ratings of the biogeoclimatic analog as the projected feasibility for that time period. In this example, on the 01 site series, spruce (Sx) and subalpine fir (Bl) are demoted while Douglas-fir (Fd) and trembling aspen (At) are promoted. Since there is an ensemble of 72 climate projections, the CCISS feasibility projections at each time period are typically a distribution indicating the uncertainty in climate futures.
Figure 2: Illustration of the CCISS method of using climate analogs to project site-specific changes in tree species feasibility, excerpted from Mackenzie & Mahony (2021). (b) An idealized slope profile illustrates that, within each biogeoclimatic subzone/variant (a climate type), the relative soil moisture and nutrients available for tree growth are moderated by site factors such as soil depth, soil parent materials, slope position and slope aspect. (a,c) Edatopic grids show the integrated effect of site factors on soil moisture regime (rows) and soil nutrient regime (columns). The cells of the edatopic grid are called edatopes. Three of the 40 possible edatopes are featured in this figure: the B2 edatope representing nutrient-poor and relatively dry (subxeric) sites; the C4 edatope representing nutrient-medium and moisture-average (mesic) sites; and the D6 edatope representing nutrient-rich and relatively moist (hygric) sites. Site series are groups of edatopes that can support the same mature plant communities. (a,b,c) Relative edatopic position does not change with changing climate, allowing equivalent site series and associated tree feasibility ratings to be aligned between historical and projected climates. (d,e) Tree species environmental feasibility ratings have been developed for all site series in each biogeoclimatic unit. Equivalent relative edatopes support different tree species under different climate regimes.
Further reading
The other tabs in this section provide more detail on the methods underlying the CCISS tool:
- BEC—Basics of the Biogeoclimatic Ecosystem Classification and the draft classifications for the US and Alberta
- Feasibility Ratings—Definitions of the tree species feasibility ratings
- Climate Change Projections—Details on the ensemble of climate model projections
- BGC Model—Explanation of biogeoclimatic projections and guidance on interpreting them.
- Edatopic Overlap—Methods for aligning site series of the historical and analog BGC units
- Rule Sets—Rules for synthesizing the feasibility projections into species-specific summary values for each site series
If you’re really motivated, check out our peer-reviewed paper on CCISS:
MacKenzie, W.H. and C.R. Mahony. 2021. An ecological approach to climate change-informed tree species selection for reforestation. Forest Ecology and Management 481:118705
Biogeoclimatic Ecosystem Classification (BEC)
In British Columbia, tree species selection for reforestation has followed an ecological approach since the adoption of the Biogeoclimatic Ecosystem Classification (BEC) by the provincial government in 1976. BEC is best described as an ecological classification framework that uses units of a plant community classification to identify and delineate ecologically equivalent climatic regions and site environmental conditions. The classification approach has hierarchical components describing climate and site level differences each based on biological (vegetation) differentiation:
Biogeoclimatic units are a specific type of bioclimate unit where the units are defined and differentiated based on mature plant associations that occur on specific site conditions known as zonal sites. Zonal sites are those positions on the landscape which best reflect climatic conditions: neutral aspect, deep loamy soils, middle slope position, mesic/medium edatopic position. Biogeoclimatic zones describe areas where zonal sites are dominated by specific late seral tree species (for forested units) reflecting broad climatic differences. Subzone/variants differentiate areas within zones by the late seral plant association of the zonal site. These more fine-grained units reflect variations in the regional climate and tree species composition of zones and define areas of ecologically equivalent climate space.
The site series describes the site-level ecological variability within each BGC subzone/variant. Predictably repeating patterns of site series occur on different site conditions as evidenced by changes in late seral plant community composition. Sites that support similar mature plant communities are considered ecologically equivalent and treated as members of the same site series. An independent set of observations of soils and site conditions are made during plot collection to determine its relative position on two important site level environmental gradients for forested ecosystems: relative soil moisture regime (very xeric to subhydric) and soil nutrient regime (very poor to very rich). BEC organizes site series by position along these two relative gradients on an edatopic grid. This relative environmental position within a biogeoclimatic unit allows the linkage of equivalent site concepts between BGC units in climate change modelling at a stand-level (i.e. a subxeric/poor site remains relatively subxeric and poor regardless of the over-arching climate regime).
More information on BEC can be found at BECweb
Composite BEC for western North America
Creating species feasibility projections for the future climates of British Columbia requires finding climate analogs in Alberta and the Western US. For Alberta, we adapted the Ecological Classification of Alberta (e.g., Archibald et al. 1996), with 21 natural subregions (Natural Regions Committee 2006) as the biogeoclimatic map units and 167 ecological sites as the site series units. For Washington, Idaho, Montana, Oregon, northern California, and northwestern Wyoming, we use a draft biogeoclimatic ecosystem classification for the Western US developed by Del Meidinger and Will MacKenzie. The resulting composite biogeoclimatic units are shown at the zone level in Figure 1.