Western redcedar (abbreviated as Cw) is a species with high ecological, cultural, and economic value. The CCISS projections for Cw reveal a complex pattern: potential expansion of suitability upwards in elevation and into more northern areas, and localized declines in low-elevation and drought-prone regions.
While the CCISS tool offers valuable insights into broad-scale trends, summarized here by species, suitability projections must be interpreted with caution. Many areas of projected change are also areas with high uncertainty in climate predictions. Furthermore, factors such as soil texture, drainage, land-use history, forest health pressures, and biotic interactions (e.g., competition or browsing) can strongly influence actual outcomes on the ground. These nuances emphasize the importance of pairing climate tools with on-the-ground knowledge and site-specific judgement when planning future western redcedar management.
Western redcedar (Cw) is native to the Pacific Northwest of North America, with a broad geographic range extending from northern California, through Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia, into southeastern Alaska. Eastward, it extends as far inland as the western slopes of the Rocky Mountains in Montana and Idaho.
Cw is best adapted to climates with abundant precipitation and high humidity but can tolerate a range of conditions. In BC, Cw is most commonly found in cool and cold mesothermal climates on the coast and in montane continental cool temperate climates in the interior wet belt (Klinka & Brisco, 2009). The species grows across a wide variety of soil types, but is most productive on fresh to moist, nutrient-rich soils (Klinka & Brisco, 2009).
In British Columbia, Cw is found in two distinct populations: a coastal population, and an interior population. Approximately 81% of the province’s mature Cw volume is found in the coastal population (Klinka & Brisco, 2009). These two populations are ecologically distinct due to differences in climatic regimes, topography, and associated vegetation, but genetically, they are quite similar (Klinka & Brisco, 2009). It is common for Cw to co-occur on mesic and wet sites with western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla) throughout its range in BC.
Species environmental suitability during the reference period (1961–1990)In the maps below, each colour represents the species environmental suitability during the historical reference period* of 1961–1990 as determined by expert ratings. Green represents a high suitability (E1 rating), blue represents moderate suitability (E2), yellow represents low suitability (E3), and white indicates areas that are unsuitable for the species. See CCISS Documentation tab > Methods > Environmental Suitability Ratings for more detailed definitions and information on the expert rating process.
*Note on terminology: The historical reference period is sometimes referred to as the “baseline” or simply “historical” or “reference” period.
The pie chart to the right depicts the distribution of the total environmentally suitable area of Cw in BC by biogeoclimatic (BGC) zone, based on the climate of the historical reference period (1961–1990).
On the coast, Cw is most abundant in the Coastal Western Hemlock (CWH) zone, especially on mesic to wet sites, where it grows alongside Douglas-fir, grand fir, and bigleaf maple (Egan, 1999). It also occurs, though less frequently, in the Coastal Douglas-fir (CDF) zone and in the lower elevation of the Mountain Hemlock (MH) zones, where it tends to be subdominant or scattered.
In the interior, it is a key species in the Interior Cedar-Hemlock (ICH) zone, particularly in the wetter subzones of southeastern and central British Columbia, and in the Interior Douglas-fir (IDF) zone, although typically as a minor component. It can also occasionally be found in the wetter subzones of the Sub-Boreal Spruce (SBS), Montane Spruce (MS), Ponderosa Pine (PP), and lower Engelmann Spruce – Subalpine Fir (ESSF) zones (Government of British Columbia 2025).
On this page, you will find a visual and interpretive synthesis of the environmental suitability projections calculated using the Climate Change Informed Species Selection CCISS tool, including:
Proportion of the historic range that the species is predicted to remain environmentally suitable (i.e. persist) or become newly suitable (i.e. expand) by site type (edatope).
Predicted mean changes in environmental suitability across its geographic range in BC, by future time period and site type (edatope).
Predicted shifts in total suitable area over time across the province and by biogeoclimatic (BGC) zone.
Overall, western redcedar (Cw) is projected to persist within about 40–60% of its historically suitable range, while its suitable range is projected to expand over time, to be about 1–1.5 times larger than the historically suitable range. Expansion of Cw’s suitable area is projected to be driven by higher temperatures expected under increased warming scenarios, particularly in wetter site types (D6).
Notes on interpretation of persistence and expansionPersistence (x-axis) and expansion (y-axis) are subtly different in how they relate to the historical range of the species. Persistence describes the change in environmental suitability within the species historical range. While Expansion describes the change in environmental suitability outside of the species historical range. Calculated as follows:
\[ \text{Persistence (\%)} = \frac{\text{future suitable area within historical range of suitability}} {\text{historically suitable area}} \times 100 \] \[ \text{Expansion (\%)} = \frac{\text{future suitable area outside historical range of suitability}} {\text{historically suitable area}} \times 100 \]Overall, the total suitable area in BC for Cw is projected to increase with climate change, but the specific locations where it is most suitable will shift.
The most notable pattern observed is in the interior of BC, with expansion of Cw suitability into the sub-boreal, as ICH (Interior Cedar – Hemlock)-like climates are projected to spread northward and westward into the historic Sub-Boreal Spruce (SBS) zone. Under historical climate (1961–1990), the Interior Plateau, including the area between Smithers and Prince George, was unsuitable for Cw. CCISS projections suggest that much of this area will become moderately to highly environmentally suitable (E1 to E2) for Cw by 2100.
In addition, locations in the southeast of the province that were historically Engelmann Spruce – Subalpine Fir (ESSF) or Montane Spruce (MS) zones, are predicted to become more climatically like ICH zones, making them newly suitable for cw. As these are two zones that are upslope of Cw’s current range, this means that higher elevation areas will become more environmentally suitable for Cw over time. This newly suitable area comes alongside significant declines to complete loss of Cw suitability projected in lower elevation, valley bottoms of this region (historically ICHxw and ICHdw subzones).
In the southwest of the province, similar losses of Cw suitability in valley bottoms are projected in CWHdm, CwHds subzones around Vancouver, Squamish and east into the Fraser Valley.
Meanwhile, many parts of the Coastal Western Hemlock (CWH) and ICH zones where suitability was high during the reference period are projected to decrease in suitability, and in some cases become fully unsuitable as these areas become more climatically similar to drier and/or warmer southern zones in Washington, Oregon, and California. In many historically high suitability (E1) areas along the coast (i.e., CWHwh1, CWHvh2, CDFmm), projected changes in suitability vary dramatically by edatope, with little change projected for medium/mesic (C4) sites, but moderate to significant declines in suitability for poor/subxeric (B2) and rich/hygric (D6) sites.
These patterns are shown in 20-year intervals and by edatopic space in the figures to the right.
Key to BGC zones: CCISS Documentation > Definitions
Key to BGC zones: CCISS Documentation > Definitions
Key to BGC zones: CCISS Documentation > Definitions
In general, Cw’s total suitable area is projected to expand across BC over the 21st century, with increases in suitable area in SBS, ESSF, and MH zones, and relatively stable to slight declines in suitable area in the CWH and ICH zones.
Many mapped units within the Sub-Boreal Spruce (SBS) zone, especially wetter subzone/variants, are projected to become warmer and wetter over time, shifting towards more Interior Cedar-Hemlock (ICH)-like climates in the future. This likely explains Cw’s projected expansion of suitable area into the SBS zone, as well as small portions of the BWBS and SBPS zones. Similarly, wet variants in the lower elevation portions of the Enegelmann Spruce-Subalpine Fir (ESSF) zone are also projected to undergo shifts toward more ICH-like climates, which means that the increased suitable area projected for Cw in this higher-elevation zone may lead to up-slope movement of the species. The Mountain Hemlock (MH) zone is above the CWH zone in elevation throughout the Coast mountains and historically supported small populations of Cw at lower elevations of the zone. Warming temperatures are the likely driver of increases in suitable area for Cw projected at higher elevation into the MH zone.
These broad patterns are generally consistent across site types, with more pronounced increases in suitable area in the SBS zone for medium/mesic (C4) site types, and for ESSF zones in poor/subxeric B2, and rich/hygric D6 site types.
Western redcedar (Cw) is generally more resistant to pests and pathogens than other timber species (Klinka & Brisco, 2009). However, opportunistic biotic agents can take advantage of already stressed trees. Cedar leaf blight (Didyamascella thujina) is the most severe pathogen currently affecting Cw Infecting leaflets of seedlings and mature trees, it causes gradual decrease in growth through a loss of photosynthetic area, eventually leading to tree death (Aldana et al., 2023). This pathogen is most common in dense stands with high humidity (Klinka & Brisco, 2009). The prevalence of and damage associated with cedar leaf blight is projected to increase under future climate scenarios (Aldana et al., 2023). Since genetic factors appear to influence susceptibility, selecting or breeding for resistance could be important in future management strategies for cedar leaf blight (Aldana et al., 2023).
Several species of heart- and butt-rotting fungi have long been associated with mature Cw, including brown cubical pocket and butt rot (Poria asiatica), white ring rot (Poria albipellucida), white pitted trunk rot (Fomes pini), brown crumbly butt rot (Merulius spp.), and spongy white rot (Poria subacida, summarized in Seebacher (2007)). To a lesser extent, Armillaria ostoyae (Armillaria root disease) and Phellinus weirii (laminated root rot) can also afflict redcedar trees.
Few insects are known to attack Cw directly. These include the western cedar borer (Trachykele blondeli, also known as the powderworm), the western cedar bark beetle (Phloeosinus punctatus), and the hemlock looper (Lambdina fiscellaria lugubrosa), which feeds broadly on conifer foliage (summarized in Seebacher (2007)).
For more information see the Forest Guide to Tree Health.
Widespread western redcedar dieback has been documented throughout the southern portion of the species’ range (Andrus et al., 2023), particularly in Washington state and southwestern British Columbia (Georgia Depression). This dieback is, at least in part, driven by drought, extreme heat events, and exacerbated by consecutive drought events without adequate recovery time.
Dieback in Cw is typically identified through a range of visible canopy symptoms. The most commonly reported indicators include thinning or death of the live crown (top kill), foliage yellowing (chlorosis), branch die-off (flagging), thinning, and in some cases, complete tree mortality. Trees may also exhibit increased cone production, which has been interpreted as a possible stress response. These symptoms often occur in the absence of obvious biotic agents, and are instead linked to environmental stressors, particularly drought and heat.
Since 2015, a pronounced increase in reports and field observations suggests that dieback is becoming more widespread in low-elevation coastal forests. A significant pulse of mortality was reported around 2017-2018, affecting forests from the Willamette Valley in Oregon, through western Washington, and into southern British Columbia (McWilliams, 2024). Similar reports come from southeastern Vancouver Island and parts of the lower mainland (Tomaszewski, 2022).
The causes of Cw dieback are increasingly understood to be multi-factorial, with climate water stress emerging as the dominant driver across most affected regions. While exact mechanism may vary by site and context, evidence consistently points toward seasonal drought, elevated temperatures, and increased vapor pressure deficit (VPD)—particularly during late spring and early summer—as key stressors contributing to decline and mortality.
Cw mortality is often associated with multiple consecutive years of water deficit, which leads to compounded physiological stress. Cw can recover from a single year of drought if followed by cooler, wetter conditions in subsequent years, but recovery slowed or failed when drought persisted across years (Andrus et al., 2023; Goodrich et al., 2025).